Live read on US futures, rates, vol, FX and global indices — built for a CHF-based, VT-heavy investor.
Source: Forex Factory (Fair Economy) — cached 6h. Forecast / Previous shown when supplied. Interpretations are rules-of-thumb — the actual reaction depends on how much the print surprises vs the forecast.
Mixed signals — biggest mover is Nasdaq 100 (-1.18%).
Weighted blend of the regions we can observe live (US futures, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei, Hang Seng). Modeled coverage: 92% of VT — the remaining slice is mostly Canada and EM ex-China.
Contribution = region weight × region change. The big number is the sum — an estimate of where VT should print today vs. yesterday's close based on the regions trading right now.
AI read of the current market, based on recent news. Server-cached 10 min between regens.
Europe leading the US by 1.11 pp
Euro Stoxx clearly stronger than US futures — either a US-specific headwind is in play, or US futures will catch up at the open.
Value leading — NQ -1.22 pp vs ES
Money rotating into value/defensives. Often correlates with rising yields or a 'risk-off-but-not-panicking' tape.
Trades nearly 24/5 — your single best read of where the US cash open is heading. Watch the relative moves: NQ-vs-ES tells you growth-vs-value, M2K-vs-ES tells you breadth.
Futures contract on the S&P 500. Trades nearly 24/5 and is the single best gauge for how the US large-cap open will look.
Green = bullish open expected. Red = bearish open. A move of ±0.5% before the bell is meaningful; ±1% is large.
Futures contract on the Nasdaq-100. Tech-heavy, so it reacts strongly to interest rates and AI/semiconductor news.
Often leads ES on risk-on days (tech beta). If NQ is up much more than ES, growth/tech is in favour.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. 30 large-cap, mostly value-oriented names.
If YM is green while NQ is red, money is rotating from growth into value/defensives.
Futures on the Russell 2000 small-cap index. Small caps are highly sensitive to US growth and credit conditions.
Small caps leading = broad risk-on, healthy breadth. Small caps lagging badly = narrow rally or recession fears.
The cost of S&P 500 option insurance. Rising VIX confirms genuine risk-off; falling VIX with green futures confirms genuine risk-on.
Expected 30-day volatility of the S&P 500 implied by options pricing. The market's 'fear gauge'.
<15 complacency, 15–20 normal, 20–30 elevated stress, >30 panic. A jump in VIX with futures already red confirms genuine risk-off.
Treasury yields set the discount rate for every equity on earth. Big intraday yield moves (>5–10 bps on 10Y) usually drive an equity reaction in the opposite direction — especially for tech.
Yield on the US 10-year Treasury note. The benchmark long rate that prices every other risk asset on the planet.
Rising yields pressure stocks (especially tech/long-duration). Falling yields are usually supportive — unless they fall on growth-scare flight to safety.
Yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond. The very long end of the curve, watched for inflation and fiscal worries.
Steepening (30Y up faster than 2Y) signals reflation or fiscal stress. Flattening signals slowdown.
Short-term US T-Bill yield. Tracks the Fed Funds rate closely — your proxy for cash returns.
Mostly stable day-to-day. Big moves only happen around Fed meetings or sudden policy expectations.
Asia closes before Europe opens before the US opens. They're your overnight read on global risk appetite before the US futures crowd is fully awake.
The actual S&P 500 index level. During US RTH, this is the truth — futures are just an estimate of it.
Compare to ES=F to see the futures basis. Big divergences during US hours are rare and signal session ahead.
50 largest blue-chip eurozone stocks. Trades during European hours and sets the tone before the US open.
If Europe is strongly green/red before the US opens, US futures usually follow unless a US-specific catalyst is dominant.
Japan's headline index. Closes before Europe opens, so it's the first read on overnight risk sentiment.
A weak Nikkei often signals risk-off carrying over. Heavily affected by USD/JPY.
Hong Kong's main index — your proxy for China sentiment when you don't want to deal with mainland indices.
Big moves often spill into commodities (especially copper, oil) and EM. Less directly relevant to S&P 500 day-to-day.
The dollar is the master variable for global liquidity. As a CHF-based investor in USD assets, FX moves directly change your wealth even when underlying prices don't.
Trade-weighted basket of the USD against major currencies (mostly EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF, SEK).
Strong dollar = headwind for US multinationals' earnings, headwind for commodities, and pressure on emerging markets. Weak dollar = the opposite.
Largest FX pair by volume. Inverse of the DXY for most practical purposes.
Up = USD weakening. Helps your USD-denominated holdings translate to more CHF/EUR — and vice versa.
Number of CHF per 1 USD. Directly impacts the CHF value of your USD-denominated assets (e.g. VT).
Up = USD strengthening vs your home currency, so your VT is worth more in CHF terms (separate from VT's USD price action).
Oil prices feed straight into inflation expectations and the Fed reaction function. Gold is the cleanest read on real yields and macro stress.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil front-month futures. Driver of inflation expectations and energy-sector earnings.
Spiking oil = inflation pressure + Fed dovishness gets harder. Falling oil = disinflationary, generally supportive of stocks (unless growth-scare driven).
Gold front-month futures. Safe-haven asset; tends to rise when real yields fall or geopolitical stress rises.
Gold and stocks both up usually means weaker dollar / lower real yields. Gold ripping while stocks dump = flight to safety.
Trades 24/7. Mostly correlated with Nasdaq risk appetite in recent years; useful as a sentiment input outside of stock-market hours.
Trades 24/7. The only major risk asset that prices over the weekend, so it's a useful Monday-morning sentiment input.
Strong correlation with Nasdaq in recent years. A weekend BTC dump often previews a soft Monday open for tech.
Your own positions, shown for context. These will be stale outside US RTH.
Your main holding. ~60% US, ~40% ex-US. So US sentiment dominates but not exclusively.
VT only trades during US RTH, so before the open you can approximate today's expected move as roughly 0.6 × ES + 0.4 × international.